UKCapper - Free Football/Soccer value betting tips for 17/9/08
16/09/2008 by admin.
UKCapper has 2 free football betting tips for 17/9/08 and both of them represent marginal value.
Ponte Preta v Marilia in the over 2.5 goals market are currently available at 1.62 and we have the line at 1.61 so a little bit of value on a strong bet.
Honefoss v Sandnes ULF are currently available at 1.65 for the home win and we have the true statistical odds at 1.61
Both are strong bets.
Dont miss out on all our free football betting tips at
www.ukcapper.com/football.php
UKCapper - Football/Soccer value betting tip for 16/9/08
15/09/2008 by admin.
Hacken v Bunkeflo IF represents value tomorrow. Hacken are currently 1.50 and we have capped the value for the home win at 1.46. Its one of our strong bets and its value to boot.
Check out our footbal tips for all games at www.ukcapper.com/football.php
UKCapper - Free Football/Soccer Accumulator Bet Landed
13/09/2008 by admin.
UKCapper suggested 4 free betting tips for sat 13/9/08 and all 4 obliged at odds of 1.40, 1.50, 1.70 and 1.87 for a 6.68 accumulaotr.
The bet we suggested as the value of the day was PS Kemi v GrlFK @ 1.87 for over 2.5 goals and the bet was easily met with a 3-2 result.
UKCapper - Value Free Football/Soccer Betting Tips for 12/9/08
12/09/2008 by admin.
UKCapper has 4 strong football/soccer selections for Sat 12/9/08 but as usual value should be considered when evauating a bet and 2 stand out as value.
Two strong bets tomorrow and both are value.
00:30am - Avai v Fortaleza (Bra) - Avai should be taking this and weve capped them 3 clear so perhaps a AH consideration. Weve calculated true odds of 1.39 so the 1.40 on offer is unusual value from what we would consider a decent bet.
14:00pm - PS Kemi v GrlFK (Fin) - This for us is the value of the day. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.87 for a game we calculated as a 4 goal game. We would consider true odds to be 1.62 so best value of the day for another strong selection.
UKCappers guide to identifying value when betting on football/soccer
10/09/2008 by admin.
Betting and making profit on football/soccer can be a difficult experience due to the nature of low priced favourites so the key as with any betting is making sure you obtain value and are not betting poor value inline with your prediction.
We don’t currently list value on our site for football/soccer as we like to leave it down to the punter to ascertain themselves after studying the form the probability of an outcome but we will from this point forward be highlighting value on our blog when a selection recommended as a BET is value for money.
How can you improve your perception of value?
Firstly we believe that in order to identify the true odds you really should be handicapping at a level of correct score or at least the winning margin. Once you have capped the correct score you can use basic mathematics as you see fit to identify the home win percentage, draw percentage and away win percentage.
Let’s work on a very basic example as a starting point.
As a simple starting point you can work to a basic principle that a draw on average will be around the 3.5 ish mark so that’s 28% ish of a 100% book. This leaves 72% remaining for the home and away odds.
Let’s say that you have capped a game at 2-1 to the home team. 72% / (2+1) = 24
Home Team = 24 x 2 = 48 = odds of (1/0.48) = 2.08 Away Team = 1 x 24 = 24 = odds of (1/0.24) = 4.17 Draw Odds = 1 x 28 = 28 = odds of (1/0.28) = 3.57
You have now a simple idea of understanding basic value for a 100% book.
Now this will no means be accurate and you need to remember that bookies will not have 100% books so you need to include 2-5% for their books in your calcs if you wish but you are well on the way to improve your betting and profits.
Of course you need to have a decent handicapping technique in the first place and that is something we will be writing about in next week’s football/soccer blog.
Feel free to add your views and basic or detailed techniques on identifying odds to ascertain value.